Yesterday, the dollar rallied hard against the euro. And today I want to tell you what I think is happening. Let's start with a question ...
What happened to decoupling, the idea that other economies were immune to weakness in the U.S.?
Well, it seems as though the subprime fiasco has created bigger problems for the U.S. financial system than most people anticipated. And now we're seeing this economic virus spread across other areas of the globe.
If you want some evidence of contagion in other developed economies, look no further than these recent news items ...
German industrial orders dropped sharply - by 2.9% in June. What's most disconcerting is that Germany's economy makes up one-third of total Eurozone output. And speaking of the rest of the Eurozone, many of those economies are bogged down by housing busts.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) called out the U.K. economy. Predictions for economic growth in the UK for 2008 and 2009 stood at 1.8% and 1.7%, respectively. Kiss those numbers goodbye. The IMF's latest forecast calls for a seriously lower 1.4% in 2008 and 1.1% in 2009.
Australia is battling sluggish household spending and their financial sector is being challenged. The National Bank of Australia recently reported a huge second quarter write down which it attributed to massive holdings of CDOs.
And the New Zealand Treasury anticipates a second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth. By definition, New Zealand will have entered recession once official numbers are released. They'd be the second OECD-member country since Denmark to sink to official recessionary status.
The reality is that the big three in the developed world - the U.S. the U.K., and the Eurozone - are staring into the face of recession.
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