Earnings

First-quarter earnings have so far been mixed, with Standard & Poors estimating reported earnings per share to fall roughly 30 percent compared to the same quarter in 2007.

An equivalent fall would see the S&P 500 index at 1100. Even if the Dow by comparison suffered only a 20 percent fall, that would take it as low as 11000.

Also bear in mind that falling employment is likely to have an increasing impact on consumption and corporate earnings over the next few quarters.